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Proceso 1179
February 1, 2006
ISSN 0259-9864
Editorial: Open questions after Handal's death
Politics: FMLN and ARENA after Handal's death
Economy: Economic growth with equity
Open questions after Handal's death
The political parties have shown that they can behave in a civilized and even human way. The death and the funeral of the historic leader of the FMLN, Schafik Handal, moved them to make a long truce in their electoral activities and, above all, to halt their mutual aggressions. All of them called their militants to respect the truce, besides it was too long and, finally, they attacked themselves. The FMLN let their militants know that the funerals were an occasion to respect Handal's memory and, therefore, every politician and every social sector that wish to pay their respect, were welcome. All the political parties' leaders and also the media enterprises, prone to sensationalism, recognized, in a tinged way, the political and human stature of Handal and, in particular, his coherency. Faced with the death of their main adversary, institutions as the Presidency of the Republic and the police acted with a measure they do not have in the ordinary life. Government facilitated the entrance of the left wing delegations to the country.
This behavior is unusual, Handal was not the average adversary for the ruling
party, but the one that incarnated for it all the evils and pities of the
country and the one who was the quintessence of Communism. This means that the
ARENA's government and the political parties can behave themselves in a
civilized way when they have the purpose of doing so. This sign of humanity that
came out in this occasion is very important, not only because it determines the
behavior of militants and sympathizers, but of the society. If social, political
and governmental life ran through this way, there would be a better coexistence
and more solidarity. Unfortunately, this sign of humanity only comes out when
there are great tragedies or catastrophes.
The question of why government, political parties and the society are not
respectful and tolerant with the thought and the way of being of the others
keeps pending. It is not about to be unaware of the differences of criterion and
behavior, neither of accepting the point of view of the others without arguing,
even in a passionate way but with reasonable arguments and respecting the other
persons and their integrity. The government and the political parties can argue
and dissent on their postures and they can also make electoral campaigns without
insulting each other and without violence. The answer to the intriguing question
of why, if they can do it, they do not do it, lies in the social and political
polarization, induced, in a good extent, by the major parties, the government
and media firms. The polarization displaced itself from the electoral milieu
—where it was commonplace since times out of mind— to invade and seize everyday
political activities. Their main protagonists, ARENA and the FMLN, took it into
extents that are very dangerous for social coexistence. ARENA uses polarization
as a mean to concentrate more power than it currently has. The FMLN uses it to
promote alternative strategies to elections. This polarization lies on the
traditional opposition between left and right, exacerbated during the Cold War
and the Salvadoran civilian war. On spite that both of them belong to the past,
polarization still remains and it determines both institutional and social
political life. In this sense, Handal's death not only leaves an inheritance to
his party, but to the society and the rest of the parties. Without any
pretension, it has pointed the way for a human coexistence.
This unusual pause was closed with Handal's burial. Quite soon, even just before
burying him, some speculated about the FMLN's future and the new political
scenario in El Salvador. There are always politicians and so-called "analysts"
that dared to predict that future. Their statements are pure speculations,
because they do not have any kind of data in order to support their
suppositions. The missing of a leadership like Handal's makes internal
rearrangements an imperative. Depending on how these rearrangements are made,
that would be the FMLN's fate. If there would be any struggle for power, as can
be expected, their result will define the party's future. FMLN's leaders, when
referring their leader's legacy, emphasize their call for the unity inside the
party and faithfulness to its ideas. It is a understandable reaction and the
only one they can have at this moment, while the unavoidable rearrangements are
made. It is important to state that the truly unity has contents, which poses
the question of the new leadership. Unity is not a value that flows over the
void or that could be reached just by talking about it, neither it can be sought
by itself. Unity turns real around someone or something. When the commitment
with Handal's idea is stated, one can ask who will define the line or will
become their authorized interpreters. Answering that the party itself or its
militants it is not enough. The unexpected missing of Handal for which,
obviously, the FMLN was not ready, put the FMLN's institutional life and the
maturity of its current leaders into a proof. Only the institutionality or a
unanimously supported leadership can fill the void that Handal left.
Being prudent, the new political scenario in the country can not be predicted.
This could be known only after the next elections. FMLN's performance will be
decisive to define its immediate future. Its position in the political scenario
also depends on the forces accumulated in the congress and in the mayor's
offices. But, in order to have a complete glance, it is necessary to include
ARENA, because Handal's missing leaves a void in their strategy. Ably, ARENA
used his overreactions with the media or in the congress in order to grow the
fear toward him and his leadership. For ARENA it was easy to personify
everything that it considered undesirable for the country. ARENA made of Handal
its one and only political adversary. He was blamed for the mistakes of the FMLN
and also for ARENA's and its government's. This scheme was suitable to grow
polarization and profiting from it. But Handal's death weakens one of those
poles. ARENA does not have an easily identifiable adversary and a scapegoat for
all the problems in the country anymore. Certainly, the FMLN is still there, but
it is much harder to point all the weapons against a party, less visible than a
person. It is not the same to nurture fear against a personal enemy, than doing
the same against an institution that can not be personified.
The result of the next elections and its political consequences depend on how
ARENA focuses polarization. It also depends on how the FMLN reacts to the new
strategy of ARENA and how the electorate reacts to Handal's death and the
rearrangements in the FMLN. The massive mourning are not unworthy at all, but it
is necessary to expect if they can determine, and into which extent, the results
of election.
FMLN and ARENA after Handal's death
Public commotion passed right after Handal's burial. There are many speculations about the FMLN's political future in a "post-Handal" era. Perhaps it is too premature to make any kind of prediction. Is more reasonable to remark some evidences that can be observed in the behavior of the FMLN and ARENA.
It is obvious that the ruling party did not waited too much to change the
moderate and respectful tone whose leaders maintained during right after
Handal's death, for the furious anticommunist tone it use to have. Besides some
leaders as René Figueroa did not call the name of the dead leader, it is obvious
that Handal is still present for the right wing. "They have appointed the ultra
orthodox Salvador Sánchez Cerén to lead their legislative representation,
therefore, those who are indefinite and hesitant, are marginalized", stated
Figueroa.
The "Handal effect"?
Some media started talking about a supposed "Handal effect" which, after the
legendary former Secretary General of the Salvadoran Communist Party (PCS) died,
would attract the former dissidents with the party to the FMLN's ranks. The
evidence would be the crowded demonstrations during Handal's burial.
That "Handal effect" is, currently, an important factor in the FMLN's electoral
propaganda. Handal's figure is shown in a legendary way. He is shown as a man
who was coherent with his ideas, as a political who was committed with his
people and as a guerrilla commander. This late thing remarks a secondary aspect
in Handal's trajectory, even failing to historical truth. As Secretary General
of PCS, Handal was the chief of its armed wing, the Armed Liberation Forces (FAL),
but Handal was not an outstanding military chief during the war.
It is true that during the sixties, Handal leaded the United Revolutionary
Action Front (FUAR), an ephemeral attempt of armed struggle by the PCS. But
during his trajectory as a Communist leader, Handal was forged in political
work: during the sixties and the seventies, as the organizer of the electoral
interventions of a clandestine PCS that was forced to hid its name and
participate under the umbrella of legalized parties. During the eighties, which
means during the war, as the visible political head of the FMLN, compared to the
other FMLN's commanders, who were more military men rater than politicians. For
those of them who posed as military heroes during the war and wanted to profit
of this reputation in the post-war, peace meant a whole mess: they lost the
direction in the institutional politic and they also lost their beliefs. Handal,
who never was a war hero and never pretended that, knew the waters he was
sailing on.
The delicate question of the "Handal effect" is the restructuration of the
leftist party. This is an urgent task, because the FMLN should take advantage
from the sympathy that the people showed it after its leader's death.
In the power struggled between the "orthodox" and "reformist" wings, it seem
that posthumous sympathy for Handal only make it clear that, according to many
people, the orthodox wing is the legitimate heir to Handal's legacy. It could be
said that the FMLN that people trusts is very similar to what Handal represents:
firm principles, commitment with the people and intolerance to any kind of
flirting with the right wing.
Many politicians of ARENA stated that, since Handal's dead, they do not have an
interlocutor and a rival, at least, the most visible rival. From now on, they
will try to attack a rival that, being dead, it is quite difficult to attack.
Economic growth with equity
The lack of economic growth is causing many doubts inside several organizations devoted to economic research. Last weak, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) predicted an economic growth for El Salvador in a rate of 3.5%. In the introduction to the report titled World Economic Situation and Prospects, the organization asserted that during the current year, Salvadoran economy will have a better performance than the past years. This improvement can be explained by factors as CAFTA, a good performance in agronomy and tourism and a better dynamism in the construction sector. Even with all this favorable elements, the report also remarks that the country is not under an economic boom.
Also last week the Central American Management Institute (INCAE) published a
preview of the report Long-term growth scenarios in El Salvador. The report
wants to establish what are the different ways that economy might take in three
possible scenarios. The first of them would be to make changes that do not agree
with the economic model. The second one would be not making any change and the
last one would be to make positive changes according with the model, quitting
what is proven to be wrong. This research arrives to the conclusion that the
struggle against poverty and to generate equity is a fundamental need. The
document recognizes that only the economic growth with equity will allow a
sustainable growth.
The economic reform during the nineties
The search for larger rates of economic growth is an old problem of economic
science. One of the most important experiments in this sense is the economic
plan derived from the Consensus of Washington. In that moment, those who
underlined the economic politic thought that through economic liberalization and
the expansion of free market to other activities would guarantee the economic
growth of the countries. Nevertheless, after years of economic reforms, it can
be noted that the economic growth is below the expectations. In the best case,
it is a quite volatile growth. In El Salvador, the situation is not different of
the Latin American reality. However, its characteristics point that something is
going wrong.
The situation in the country is interesting, due to the orthodox way the reforms
were made. The country was noted by making these reforms almost to the letter.
Trying to apply the measures in the most precise way possible, the government
did not work to establish consensus that could vary from the orthodox measures
established by the Consensus of Washington. El Salvador kept to the terms of the
consensus against democracy and governability. On spite of their social impact,
the measures were not widely discussed. The reforms were executed during the
nineties.
The problem becomes bigger when the scarce growth is enjoyed only by few. Since
peace agreements were signed in 1992 until this day, the national income
proportion belonging to the richest persons is increased. This necessarily
implies a lesser participation of those sectors having a minor income. This
dynamic explains the political confrontation milieu that the country has in some
moments.
On spite the deterioration of social conditions, during the late years of the
nineties the country had an enviable macroeconomic stability in Latin American
region. The economic success was explained in one way: macroeconomic stability
and competitiveness. The competitiveness index in El Salvador since 1995 to 2000
achieved important advances, into the extent that the country was qualified as
attractive for the foreign investment. In the same way, inflation was
controlled, into the extent that during 1999 the inflation was near zero and
fiscal deficit was considerably reduced. But this indicators did not showed the
hardship lived by most of the Salvadoran people.
The new century and a vanished economic mirage
In the first years of the new century, GDP rates went lower than in the past.
This reduction attempted against macroeconomic stability, until the extent that
fiscal deficit and became a problem. On spite the Monetary Integration Law and
the competitiveness levels in the country, foreign investors reduced the capital
flux for productive investment. By doing so, the economic benefits brought by
the reforms were lost in a few years, due to the weakening of the economic
activities in several productive sectors.
In a generalized violence milieu, characterized by the lack of political
consensus, of social problems without governmental response and an extreme
poverty, an economic growth based on equity is needed. It is interesting to note
that some of who promote this sort of economic growth are entrepreneurs.
What happened? How can this change of mentality be explained? In the past, many
entrepreneurs were convinced that social problems and bad economic decisions
would not affect their profits and, in consequence, it was not necessary to
change the situation. However, in the present, the problems have grown in an
extent that they affect the frail economic stability and, thus, the
entrepreneurial milieu. This is confirmed in the Report on Human Development in
El Salvador, 2005, from the UNDP, in which the incongruity of an emerging
economic model with the social reality lived in the country. While the
government boasted about having an enviable macroeconomic stability and high
competitiveness levels, the society was under a severe level of unemployment
and, as a consequence of this, a growing level of emigration to the United
States and other countries.
Now that macroeconomic stability is at risk and the national competitiveness is
diminished, some talk about making important economic changes. According with
the UNDP is necessary to change the economic politics. The INCAE states that
equity should be promoted, while ECLAC the answer is "productive development in
open economies". Some entrepreneurs are starting to realize that the country
won't be viable in the next years if important changes are not made. National
and international organizations often attract the attention on the need for
making changes in order to get the country ahead.
Politics for equity
In order to attack poverty and overcome inequity, it is necessary to establish a
progressive fiscal policy. A policy that makes it possible that those who have
largest income contribute to the country's development. There are no shortcuts,
this is an unavoidable need and no country that boost about having an economic
growth with equity can have a regressive fiscal policy. In order to achieve this
goal, a profound tax reform is necessary.
These fiscal changes should never be arbitrary. They must result from fiscal
pact based on the consensus of the social sectors. The best way to achieve
equity is a progressive fiscal policy. Such kind of policy reveals the real
entrepreneurial interests. In this case, if many entrepreneurs like to speak
about equity and its promotion, their commitment with the change of the social
and economic situation should be noted. In other words, this measure will show
whether the entrepreneurs are willing to pass from the speech to the action or
not.
It is obvious that the government should support these changes. But the matter
turns more delicate when entrepreneurs and government officers are hard to
distinguish. The fact that some entrepreneurs are willing to contribute to
achieve equity in the country does not mean that automatically all the
entrepreneurs think the same.
From this approach, there is a single way to make the entrepreneurs accept
politics that support equity: they should recognize that the improvements in the
living conditions of the poor will contribute to governability, democracy and
the reduction of violence, creating a better milieu for business. Salary
improvement will increase the demand and labor productivity, improving the
function of the economic course.
It is necessary that government is willing to quit from its orthodox economic
approach. It is also pertinent that it recognizes the limitations of free trade
agreements to create more jobs, as the deficiencies of Red Solidaria program to
create enough well being in the countryside. It should be focused to activities
that support economic growth. The changes needed in the country are beyond free
agreements, palliative programs and debts, which only try to satisfy the short
term needs. The government should create an economy that benefits all the
Salvadoran people. An integral social policy linked with fiscal policy, enough
capable to satisfy the population's needs. In this way, the country will give a
decisive step toward equity.
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