PROCESO — WEEKLY NEWS BULLETINEL SALVADOR, C.A.

Center for Information, Documentation and Research Support (CIDAI)

E-mail: cidai@cidai.uca.edu.sv

Universidad Centroamericana (UCA)
Apdo. Postal 01-168 Boulevard Los Próceres
San Salvador, El Salvador, Centro América
Tel: +(503) 210-6600 ext. 407
Fax: +(503) 210-6655

 

Proceso is published weekly in Spanish by the Center for Information, Documentation and Research Support (CIDAI) of the Central American University (UCA) of El Salvador. Portions are sent in English to the *reg.elsalvador* conference of PeaceNet in the USA and may be forwarded or copied to other networks and electronic mailing lists. Please make sure to mention Proceso when quoting from this publication.

 

Subscriptions to Proceso in Spanish can be obtained by sending a check for US$50.00 (Americas) or $75.00 (Europe) made out to 'Universidad Centroamericana' and sent to the above address. Or read it partially on the UCA’s Web Page: http://www.uca.edu.sv

 

For the ones who are interested in sending donations, these would be welcome at Proceso. Apdo. Postal 01-168, San Salvador, El Salvador.

 



Proceso 1138
March 16, 2005
ISSN 0259-9864

 

 

Índice


 

Editorial: Corruption has a fixed fee

Politics: The new reforms in the statutes of the FMLN

Economy: The economy in the beginning of 2005

 

 

Editorial


Corruption has a fixed fee

 

In El Salvador, the level of corruption is higher than both the Saca administration and the business elite would like to publicly admit. This issue was recently studies by the Institute of Public Opinion (IUDOP) of the Central American University, and they focused on the private sector. This sectors explains that when it renders its services to the government, it does get involved in a series of activities that go against both the free competition and the law. However, all of those involved in it, public officials and businessmen consider that their actions are part of their regular business agenda and that they do not find anything odd in this illegal actions anymore. That is not all. Most of the businessmen interviewed indicated that the ARENA administration finds itself “kidnapped” by a small number of the members of the business elite, and that somehow this party administrates the country almost exclusively for them, something that goes against the beliefs of the free market and free competition. In a few words, the Saca administration, just like the three former ones, tolerates corruption, and the discourse of both ARENA and the private sector about the economic freedoms is false.

Only in several occasions the businessmen know how to use the rules to bid on projects, to register their products in the sanitation records, or how to obtain an environmental license, something that leaves an ample margin of discretion for the public official and creates a feeling of uncertainty. In spite of the existing legislation, this happens. Generally, the reasons why a certain proposal is chosen are not revealed for those who participate in it. The businessmen assure that the public officials modify the technical and the juridical terms of the bids, as well as the contracts that follow in order to favor the activities of a certain business company. Once the project is granted to the bidders, it is almost never possible to verify if the contract has been strictly followed. Generally, the businessmen interested to provide goods or services to the government, to obtain a license, or to perform different kinds of procedures must do illegal expenditures on the official responsible for the transaction, which is understood as gratitude. That is how some businessmen give them presents or hand them a piece of the deal, invite them to lunch, pay for their trips abroad, give them cash, or give them free products or services. The best way to win a bid for a project is to pay to a public official a percentage of the contract’s value. The procedures followed by the customs service, and obtaining a license, permits, the certificate of sanitation, or the environmental certificate turn faster with diverse expenditures. This sort of deals is more common in the construction sector –different kinds of permits- , in the commercial sector –importation permits-, and in the agricultural industry –sanitation certificates-. The amounts that are paid, according to the businessmen, can go from $10 to $1 million dollars, and this is such a common event that these prices are already included in the fixed rates of the company. Therefore, if the Saca administration intends to put an end to these actions, now its members already know where to begin. It is not necessary for the President to wait for the intervention of the Comptrollers Office, the Public Ministry, or for the Judicial System, because none of these institutions can guarantee the transparency of the procedure, since all of them are part of the structure of corruption.

The National Association of the Private Business Companies (ANEP) frequently states that it represents the sector, but half of the businessmen interviewed consider that the actions of this institution (and those of the unions that represent them inside the governmental branches) have not been of benefit to everyone concerned. They also believe that the national policies have not been that positive for them. The small business companies are in the most disadvantageous position if compared with the rest of the members. The advantages are for the small sector that controls the national market. Some of these companies are the ones that have taken advantage of the opportunities provided by the economic policy of ARENA. In addition, this group has access to important information, and additional advantage to guide their actions and obtain more profits. An additional advantage is that the business elite is not very often affected by corruption, since it does get a preferential treatment, the rules change in accordance to their interests. They are part of the corruption cases, and therefore they defend corruption and they cover it up.

These heterodox habits that the believers in the freedom of the market have can be explained through the relation between the most important public officials and the formerly mentioned kind of business companies. They are so closely attached that it is easy for a businessman to become an important public official and occupy a strategic position that will enable him to organize the traffic of influences and favor his business groups. He will modify the legal and the technical terms of biddings and public contracts and will direct the public institutions to favor his group. He will enjoy of a wide range of discretion to interpret and to apply the rules. The judicial system, including the Supreme Court of Justice is one more piece of this complex structure. In fact, the institutions that are less transparent are those that guarantee transparency.

Most of the businessmen indicated that the economic policy is chosen by the business elite, although one third believes that the regular businessmen are well represented in their cabinet. That is why some of them say that this group has “kidnapped” the government, because it rules for itself and not actually for the country as a whole. For example, in the negotiation of the free trade agreement with the United States, the demands of the private sector were heard in a manner directly proportional to the size of the business group that represented it. The result was an hegemonic business group, the same one that in a study performed by the UCA, published by the ECA 645-646, had identified itself with another method. Therefore, the possibility of success depends on the relation with this group and not on the market, or on free competition, and definitively it does not depend on the rules. The foreign investment, in order to have a good performance, should penetrate into this exclusive economic and political circle. Any strategic form of investment should establish a connection with the administration of ARENA, either in a direct form or through an hegemonic business group. In any case, it must allow a substantial participation for both of them in the deals. This is the actual alternative to compensate the weak features of the Salvadoran institutional scene. Probably that is why the country is not one of the privileged areas of the region when it comes to the investments. The one that stays also gets involved in the distortion of the competition.

There is no doubt that these actions have an influence on the small economic growth, on the development of the sectors, on the generation of the added value, on the income of the population, and, definitively, on the intensification of the social inequality. To eradicate these habits takes more than just open a web page to report these events. The ARENA administration knows very well where these actions have more of an intense effect, and, if not, that administration should ask its allies, the businessmen.

G

 

Politics


The new reforms in the statutes of the FMLN

 

The national press has a certain predilection for digging deep into the internal affairs of the FMLN. And it could not be any different. In addition to the excessive amount of criticism that the reporters usually display when they refer to the political battles inside that party, there is no doubt that what happens inside of it has a considerable influence over the electoral and the political race in the country. In that context, it is important to analyze the possible implications of the new reforms announced in the statutes of the FMLN. It is necessary to examine them specifically in terms of how helpful will they be to actually strengthen their internal cohesion, at the same time that they should bet on a higher level of democratization of the structures in this organization.

According to the promoters of the statutory transformations, these changes should be understood as an effort to “increase the levels of democracy and simplify the process, since these actions would also increase the chances of a participative democracy and it does promote the simplification of the roles, strengthening the essence of the foundations by promoting the independence of the committees of the local base”. In fact, throughout the document there can be found very positive comments about the reasons and the effects that can be expected from the transformations. It is expected that this can help reduce the level of political confrontation between the members of the left-wing party, and clarify several aspects in the daily exercise of the militancy inside the party.

Actually, most of the reforms that have been proposed do not seem to affect the equilibrium of the power inside the FMLN. With a first glance, it is possible to say that the objective is to make the legal organization of the party seem more coherent or to eliminate the inefficient procedures. In fact, many of the problems of the FMLN in the last years are due to this aspect, because every electoral process has brought the need to clarify the internal procedures. As a sample of this, the news media focused on the enormous amount of ballots that the militants had to trace during the last internal elections.

The document also referred to a series of specific measures to, on the one hand, assure the control and the quality of the performance of the party’s public officials, and, on the other hand, to bet on a consensus. The article introduces the issue of inspecting the process, and it is formulated in the following terms: “there would be inspections with the mission to watch the performance of the public officials elected by the party, or those that are named through the party’s proposals. This feature will be organized by the elected ombudsmen chosen by the Convention of Proposals from a group integrated by former General Coordinators of the Party that will remain inside of it”.

After a fist glance, this measure cannot be seen with suspicion. The parties have the obligation to assure that their public officials will fulfill their electoral promises. In addition, in the context of a generalized situation of political discredit the national situation seems to be heading to guarantee a minimum amount of political coherence, as far as the public officials of the left wing are concerned.

Then again, if the principle of achieving a certain level of political coherence inside the circle of the public officials of the left wing does not seem suspicious, the history of the confrontation between the orthodox and the renovators in this organization could indicate that this new apparatus can be used so that the orthodox are able to feel their power. In reference to this aspect, people are already talking about the actions of a revolutionary source to control the ombudsmen. Oscar Ortiz, the Mayor of Santa Tecla, indicated that “if the purpose is to favor someone or some group, when the inspection system is created it will not be strong enough to fulfill its duties”. In any case, in order to determine if this new structure will promote a sort of an internal dictatorship, it is necessary to wait for the elaboration of their internal regulations.

In any case, an institution that evaluates the performance of the public officials in a party should not become an organization in charge of punishing or rewarding its members according to how much these people support the actions of the inspection system. The militants at the base of the institution are the ones that have to play this role through free and democratic elections to choose the people who will occupy a position inside the public administration system.

The present authorities of the left wing party are not totally convinced if a free and a transparent competition among its members is the best way to strengthen their organization. This curious conviction can be somehow seen in the reforms that have been proposed and which intend that an election would be considered as the last resource, only in the cases where there is no consensus between the local or the national leaders to designate a candidate that will run for a public position. That is why the document indicates that “all of the official affiliates will choose through a direct and a secret vote the following authorities of the parties and the candidates who will participate in the popular elections, except in the cases when the political parties are able to previously reach a consensus with the participation of its militants…”.

This measure, in the opinion of the leaders of the FMLN will help them to avoid confrontations and the internal deterioration of the party. According to the present coordinator of the party, “the objective is to win, therefore we have to look for the most capable individuals, independently from any other consideration of affinity”. It is expected that the noble objective to win the political race will prevent them from having negative feelings and isolate the dissidents.

An internal voice of the party has already pronounced itself against this curious way to understand democracy. Carlos Rivas Zamora, the Mayor of San Salvador, does not believe that an internal competition can debilitate the party: “when there is a competition inside the FMLN, several of the mass media say that there has been a break-up. I believe that, ultimately, this is the fear of the FMLN”. And if that were the case, then it would not be necessary to organize a process of elections in the country, because it can be said that such process will lead to the end of the social harmony, just like it actually happens with the violent confrontations, something almost normal during the elections among the sympathizers of the left and the right wing.

However, nobody has considered that a group of brilliant people have to designate the public officials that will occupy public positions. On the contrary, some people talk about the need to assure that the elections will be free, transparent, and honest, at the same time that the actors are required to respect the rules of the democratic game. Logically, the same thing would be expected from the FMLN.

In the first place, its leaders should adopt the pertinent measures to guarantee the transparency of its internal elections and the reliability of the results. Until now, none of the internal disputes has been approved by all of the contenders. Even in the case of those who have been defeated and have admitted their failure, discretionary actions have been reported by the Electoral Tribunal of the party. A rumor has been alive for quite a long time: that the orthodox have somehow “arranged” the electoral process in order that their candidates manage to win.

When the former problem is resolved, it will be possible to demand a democratic culture from the militants of the FMLN. That is how they will learn to respect the internal democratic game, and its legitimacy should rely on the support of most of its members. In other words, this is not about avoiding the internal competition among the different perspectives connected with the formula to handle the party. This is about being sure that the democratic mechanisms actually work inside the left wing party. Only the naïve can think that what moves them to win (and defeat ARENA) will be enough to neutralize the dictatorial tendency inside the FMLN.

G

 

Economy


The economy in the beginning of 2005

 

The first trimester of 2005 revealed, thanks to preliminary numbers, what is the economic situation of this year. The information provided by the economic indicators, for example, explains what will the production of this period be like.

On the one hand, the Economic Activity Volume Index (IVAE, in Spanish) and the Industrial Production Volume Index (IVOPI, in Spanish) remain at a negative percentage, although with smaller proportions if compared with 2004. According to the information published by the Central Bank of Reserve (BCR, in Spanish), the general IVAE dropped by –2.04% during January; this means that out of every 100 goods produced in the country they was a 2% shortage. The IVOPI, for the month in question was reduced by –1.67%, which means that for every 100 goods, a couple of products were not actually elaborated. These numbers clearly reflect how the production level dropped.

By analyzing the IVAE through the different branches of the economic activity, it can be observed that the sectors that show a higher level of reduction in production terms are: the construction sector, with –20.7%, and the manufacturing industry, with –4%. This means that out of every 100 finished projects, more than 20 of them were postponed, and that from every 100 pieces manufactured per month, four of them have not actually been produced.

This fall in the construction sector, according to Jorge Arriaza, the executive director of the Salvadoran Association of Industrialists (ASI, in Spanish) is to blame for the absence of important projects of infrastructure, such as the ones that were developed in 2004 with the construction of the new shopping malls. However, this is not a condition for the growth of a stagnated economy, and it is not the cause of the low level of economic growth; on the contrary, the proliferation of shopping malls should encourage the growth of the importation level and the growth of the consumption level in the Salvadoran society.

What people should be concerned about is the situation inside the manufacturing industry, which is logically due to the reduction of the textile production level caused by the deficient level of competitiveness that the Salvadoran maquila has before the so called Asian menace. A situation that has become more delicate since China managed to become free from the exportation fees in the United States.

The level exportations from China to the United States and Europe has increased during the last months. In February, according to the information of the Chinese Customs Administration Service, the level of exportation went up to $650 million, which means that it increased by 147%; and, in relation to Europe, the amount was $783 million (188%) in reference to last year.

The comparative and the competitive advantages that China has before the rest of the Latin American countries are based in the reduction of its production costs, that, compared with the ones of Latin America, are much smaller. Such advantages are unfair for many producers because the labor is extremely inexpensive (between $50 and $125 per month).

Cambodia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka have taken advantage of the reduction of the costs, they have offered to the investors of the maquilas salaries between $0.25 and $0.40 per hour, something that has increased the production of clothes to astonishing levels of 50% per year, leaving the textile field to China. This situation has caused a sudden and a drastic loss of jobs, destabilizing both the national and the Latin American economies.

Francisco Escobar Thompson, the president of the Salvadoran Association of Tailoring (ASIC, in Spanish), does not believe that they will be capable recuperate a portion of the market during 2005, while the Free Trade Agreement that was signed with the United States becomes effective. In spite of an investigation performed by Fitch Risk Ratings company, which indicates that the free trade agreements will not help to completely heal the situation of the market, Escobar insists on the idea that if the country did not have a free trade agreement, the industry would decrease by 15 or 20%.

On the other hand, several economists consider that the national industry will be relieved if the United States applies a 27% tax to any additional exportation of Chinese clothing items, in order to level out the distortion of prices that the devaluation of currency has caused.

Another advantage that could be applied, according to Escobar, is the geographic proximity, the capacity that the companies have to deliver the orders on time and to react with the transformations in the fashion business or the seasons, is another factor that helps the sector to keep their territory in the American market.

To reactivate these sectors there are also other proposals, such as the national purchases, in order to reactivate the internal market, have a higher level of productivity, and strengthen the food industry. It is necessary to invest more in the amount of technology used in the productive processes and innovate products that already exist, or to introduce new ones that could be attractive to the international markets.

The direct effect of the exportations is noticeable. According to the preliminary information of the BCR, the exportations grew by 2.8% during February, a percentage that contrasts with the growth of the importation level, which reached a 9.5% in the same month, that is, a difference of 6.7%. This difference goes beyond the 4% that it reached in November of last year. And although the exportations grew by almost one point, the importations have increased almost four times in relation to the amount recorded in November of 2004.

It is necessary to analyze inflation. In 2004, inflation reached its maximum level during October (5.5%). According to the BCR, during January, the inflation level was higher (5.7%) than the maximum index of 2004 (5.5%). In other words, inflation increased by 2.7% in reference to last year (for the same month).

This situation could be due to a couple of factors: the increasing prices of petroleum and the negative impact of the fiscal reform. One of the main reactions before the increase of the taxes is the increase of the prices, in order to counteract the loss of many business companies. This indicates that it is necessary to evaluate all of the effects of the reforms and, most of all, to verify if in fact they are encouraging the economic growth.

By analyzing the different indicators of production, prices, importations, and exportations it is possible to see that there is a tendency that will follow the same line of 2004. The industrial sector is facing a recessive cycle and it is necessary to neutralize this tendency in order to create more jobs and increase the economic activity. If these sectors are not activated, it is possible that the GNP will only grow by 2%, and that is not enough to reach higher levels of economic development.

G

 

 

 


Please, send us your comments and suggestions
More information:
Tel: +503-210-6600 ext. 407, Fax: +503-210-6655