A vicious circle

Posada Carriles in El Salvador?

No governmental authority would dare to affirmatively respond to the headline of this commentary. President Saca said that his orders were to prevent the anti-Castro terrorist from entering the country, despite the pending accounts that he has with the Salvadoran justice. A prominent public official of the right wing, Mario Acosta Oertel (now working as the advisor of the President), the former minister of Internal Affairs, who was accused by Fidel Castro of protecting Posada Carriles, sees this possibility as a very distant one because, according to him, “with the emergency measures of the National Security Council aimed to prevent the international terrorists from coming to the country to act against other nations using El Salvador as a base, I believe that the chances that Posada Carriles has to arrive to this territory are going to be smaller”.

Is Posada Carriles actually in Honduras? The authorities of this country have confirmed this as a fact, and said that they were willing to solve the problem by deporting the intruder. The Migration office of that Central American nation has declared: “In a private flight of Panama, four men arrived; three of them went to Miami and another one possibly remained here. We do not have any migratory record that could confirm that Posada Carriles is in Honduras. We made an intense investigation to verify if he came to the country or not under another name. We will not allow that a terrorist comes to the national territory, and we are alert to prevent this type of people from coming to Honduras”.

However, other sources have spoken more clearly about the presence of the anti-Castro individual in Honduras. “He had a passport of the United States -declared an official of the airline in which he traveled-, and it said that his name was Melvin Thompson. He traveled with us as Melvin Thompson, according to the passport that he gave us. His documents were all right back when we took him. Nobody knew who was the person they were taking. He looked like a gentleman. We realized what was going on because of the press when we returned to Miami”.

It seems that it is very easy for Posada to move around Central America, and this would have to be a reason for each one of the leaders of this region to reflect about what is going on. Posada, thanks to his connections (which will be also analyzed further in this article), has not only managed to be forgiven by the government of Mireya Moscoso for his crimes, but he has also been able, until now, to move around freely without being bothered by the region’s security services. As it has been verified by the Honduran case, despite the declarations of President Maduro, who has stated that he is willing to make a special group available and all the resources to determine the whereabouts of Posada Carriles, there are no results so far.

The contacts of the old warrior
Since the failed invasion of Bahia Cochinos, Posada Carriles has remained active, trying to carry out his dream about seeing Fidel Castro die. He was arrested in Panama two years ago, as soon as Castro announced before the press that Posada and their men were creating a plan to assassinate to him during his visit to the University of Panama. Because of this accusation, despite the tantrum thrown by the Panamanian president, the defendant was arrested. He was being judged by the authorities of that country, when Mireya Moscoso decided to grant a presidential pardon to him, to later to put him in an airplane with afalse passport, so that he were able to travel to Honduras.

Posada has been accused of being responsible for a group of activities against the Castro regime. The Miami Herald reviewed his actions in these terms: “He leaded a group of six political exiles that tried to assassinate Castro in Colombia four years ago. He conspired to take plastic explosives from Guatemala to Cuba, hidden inside a pair of diapers, inside shampoo bottles, and inside the shoes of some Guatemalans who were posing as tourists. He planned to fly a Cuban cargo ship in Honduras in 1993 and establish a secret base in Honduras in the following year, from which the Cuban political exiles would be able to attack the island”.

However, the judicial apparatus of the Central American countries has never interfered with the activities of Posada Carriles. Some people even consider him as a first class patriot, whose acts, despite their terrorist character, must be pardoned compared with the evil of the tyrant that he wants to overthrow. He has said in other occasions that he considers himself an honest man who has dedicated his life to work for his country and defend it.

Among the denunciations through which the subject of the terrorism in the region is being analyzed, and the political lessons that have to be inferred from the decision of the ex- Panamanian president to release Posada Carriles, it is convenient to notice what are his connections inside the region. Since he escaped back in 1985 from a Venezuelan prison, because of his alleged participation in the attack against a flight of the airline Cubana de Aviación, he has either been working or hiding in Central America, with the complicity of the highest circles of both the political and the economic power.

In El Salvador, Guatemala or Honduras, Posadan Carriles has moved around without any problems, despite the constant denunciations of the Cuban government about Posada’s terrorist activities in the region. In order to achieve his goals, as Posada himself has declared it in an interview with the journalists of the Miami Herald, he has always counted with the political protection of the CIA and the FBI, and with the economic support of influential organizations that belong to Cuban political exiles that live in the United States. In connection to the American intelligence organizations, he stated the following: “As you can see, neither the CIA nor the FBI ever bother me, and I stay neutral with them. Whenever I can help them, I just do it”.

Although, in fact, no one knows what is the actual relation between Posada and the American organizations of security and espionage, the truth is that he has counted with a considerable political support from that country. In the context of the cold war, he was a key element in the anti-communist fight of the region. In other words, the objective to contain the propagation of Communism in the subcontinent, which was undertaken by the politicians of the United States, saw in the character in question one of its international warriors. The failure of the invasion in Bahia Cochinos did not extinguish Posada’s counterrevolutionary ardor, nor his constant failure to witness the death of Fidel Castro.

Despite the declarations against the international terrorism, apparently, the work of Posada is valued in a positive way in the circles of power connected to the right wing in the United States as well as in Central America. The last pardon granted to this “symbolic fighter “is enough to corroborate the previous asseveration. Mireya Moscoso said that hers was a human attitude. However, there is still a shadow of a doubt present in the influence exerted by the anti-Castro groups of Miami in this political decision. It was said that Moscoso had a regular contact with a former American ambassador in Panama, and that they discussed the details of her decision about forgiving Posada.

There are many doubts about the American participation in the pardon granted to Posada Carriles and his men. In addition, there are some intriguing questions about the facts that the American authorities would have to explain if they are really concerned about the fight against terrorism. For instance, some people say that during his arrival to Honduras, Posada Carriles presented an authentic American passport with a false name. This is a piece of information that would corroborate the fact that Posada counts with an important amount of support from the circles of power. To announce an investigation in Washington about such statements would have been a reasonable and a coherent decision in relation to the antiterrorist fight that the present government of that country leads.

Posada Carriles and El Salvador
Although the long history of the relation between Posada Carriles and the services he rendered in the Central American region has been reviewed in just a general way, El Salvador is the country where that character apparently counts with a true base of support. The last pieces of information revealed by the Cuban intelligence in relation to the failed attack against Castro in Panama and, previously the bombs that a group of Salvadorans put in different hotels in Havana, show that in this last stage of his life Posada counted with the support of a solid organization in the country.

This idea could lead anyone to think that Posada Carriles could be in El Salvador again. Although the judicial process opened against him by the Attorney General’s office for using false documents could constitute a dissuasive element to enter the country, nevertheless, the contacts that he has kept in this territory, the predominant anti-Communist context among the authorities of public security could motivate him to choose this area as his retreat. It is important to notice that in Honduras they have ordered an authentic police campaign -and a press campaign as well- to identify the whereabouts of Posada. However, in El Salvador, it would be a surprise if some public authority or a journalist is somehow dedicated to investigate the local connections of Posada.

For all of the previous reasons, it is not absolutely preposterous to think that Posada could be found in the country. In any case, it is possible to suppose that he runs a greater risk if he remains in Honduras, where the President has promised to deport him to Panama in case that he is arrested. However, in El Salvador, the Posada is seen as an authentic hero in the circles of power of the right wing. He is not seen as a threat against the national security. On the contrary, the supporters of Castro do not receive a positive review in the press or inside these circles of power that usually accuse them of having connections with Communism.

In any case, the reflections around the whereabouts of Posada remain just as speculations. Nevertheless, this is no obstacle for the Salvadoran authorities to consider the possibility of having a coherent speech against the international terrorism. If they speak about the need to protect the country from the dangers of the terrorism, they do not seem to understand very well that the passivity or, in the worst of the cases, the complicity of some public officials can protect certain terrorists, because of their feelings of hate against terrorism.

The increasing cost of the Basic Food Basket

The results of the survey made by the General Direction of Statistics and Census (DIGESTYC, in Spanish) revealed this week that the cost of the Basic Food Basket (CBA, in Spanish) has increased. According to this organization, the increase of the prices in the products that constitute the CBA grew higher back in March, and everything seems to indicate that this tendency will prevail, since it is connected with the increase of the prices of petroleum.

The increasing prices have stricken the urban and rural zones of the country, but the impact in the former has been greater. Whereas, in the urban zone, the cost of the CBA has gone from $128 to $134 (between July of 2003 to July of 2004), in the rural area, this cost has varied from $94 to $106. This information reveals the difficult situation of the people that live in the rural areas. In the last decade, the inhabitants of these regions of the country have gradually lost their purchasing power due to the lack of dynamism in the agricultural sector, and the effect this had on the low employment level.

It is necessary to mention that, among the nutritional products that constitute the CBA, the bare essentials of the Salvadoran diet are the most expensive ones: beans and corn. However, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Cattle-Raising, this increase is not exclusively due to the increase in the prices of petroleum. It is important to remember that the increase of this combustible affects the transportation costs of the agricultural goods from the fields to the city. This is also due to the droughts in Guatemala and Honduras, something that affects the agricultural productivity of the region, and the speculation that exists in the market of agricultural goods.

Malnutrition
During this week, the improvements made by the country to reduce the undernourishment level in the children who are not five years old yet were revealed. Although, in general terms, the cases have been reduced by 4,4%, a fifth part of the younger infantile population still reflects a picture of malnutrition. According to the Ministry of Health, the affected areas of the countryside are Ahuachapán, Cuscatlán and Santa Ana. In former years, some of these areas were characterized by the production of coffee, but the crisis of the sector has affected the economy of the families who worked in the harvesting of the grain.

In this context, a considerable part of the Salvadoran population has severe problems of undernourishment. The poorest families that live in the rural areas are especially affected by this problem. They usually do not know what constitutes a balanced diet, and on the other hand they do not have a great variety of food available. In addition, the income of the families is insufficient.

The increase of the CBA in the rural areas affects the levels of nutrition of the population. With the present level of income, this increase can worsen the malnutrition problem of many Salvadorans. Peculiarly, nutritionists think that there are at least two types of food that must be in the diet of the Salvadorans: rice and beans. Both are rich protein foods, an essential substance for the body’s performance. However, the price of both of these products has increased.

The increase of the CBA is, therefore, more than an economic fact. It is a process that, in the long term, can affect the health of the poorest Salvadoran families. This fact, of course, involves a stronger set of implications: a low life expectancy level, an insufficient capacity to acquire knowledge, and a reduction of the labor productivity levels, among other things.

Estanflacion?
Estanflacion, is a particular word used in Spanish to describe the complex mechanism of inflation of the Latin American countries, and it has not been translated into English yet. The increase of the prices in the CBA can be seen as the weak side of the macroeconomic stability. It can promote the reduction of the real wages and, if this tendency remains the same for a considerable amount of time, the decrement in the real wages could affect both productivity and the national product. This would worsen the situation of economic stagnation of the country.

Since 1996, the economic activity has diminished its growth rates. Its low level of production is reflected in a minimum increase of the growth rate of the GNP. With the new century, particularly between 2001 and 2003, the growth rates have been considerably low. All these elements indicate that we are in a period of economic stagnation. The economic stagnation has two sources: a world-wide loss in the economic cycle, and the lack of an industrial and a strong competitive tissue before the commercial openness.

The world-wide loss in the economic cycle, an aspect of this conjunction, has been translated into a loss of dynamism for the global economy, something connected with the international and the national markets. In this context, the country is attached to the North American market. Many of the goods that are part of the local offer come from the United States; but at the same time, the North American market is the destiny of a considerable amount of local goods. In the last years, the low economic performance of the U.S.A. has had a perverse effect on the local economy. This economic relation with the North American country has a double articulation: a relation in the areas of the real economy, as well as a monetary perspective. It is necessary to remember that dollars are the currency of local circulation, and that the control of the monetary variables that affect the country depends on the administration of the Federal Reserve of the U.S.A.

From an historical perspective, the absence of a strong industrial tissue reminds us of the industrialization model connected with the substitution of imports, which was used during the sixties by the local capitalists that managed to obtain their profits through a market of monopolies and oligopolies . In this sense, they were never subjected to the modern tendencies of the world-wide fashions of the economy that prevailed by the end of the seventies, an economy that was consolidated during the two following decades.

From the perspective of the industrial organizations, El Salvador does not have solid or competitive markets, because, during many years, the companies, the producers, and the consumers did not know how to conjugate the efficient processes of production with high quality standards.

The increasing prices are added to the loss of the productive capacity of the country. Oddly enough, this is not due to an excess of demand, since the Salvadorans lack a nominal increase of their income, therefore their purchasing power does not increase. With the exception of the people who receive remittances, the population must adjust its nominal income to the increasing prices of food. Both aspects go against the stability of an obsolete economic apparatus that keeps making an incipient effort to become part of the global economy.

What to do?
To improve the health of the population, it is also important to improve its purchasing power. How can this be done if the stagnation of the production process is an impediment for the creation of jobs?

In order to resolve the problem, the substantial increase in the nominal wages should be accompanied by an active participation of the State in the development projects of the economic sectors. A global economic growth goes through the reconstruction of the productive apparatus, where not only the tertiary sector of the economy has to grow, but also those sectors that create more jobs: the manufacturing industries and the agricultural field.

A strong and an organized economic apparatus, combined with a harmonic economic growth must increase the productivity level in order to improve the economic and the social well-being of the workers. In order to do that, it is fundamentally important to consider the commitment of the State with the elite of the private sector, to make a series of efforts from the perspective of the industrial organization, and to improve the labor policy for the benefit of the workers. More than an activity of social assistance, this process must be understood as a search for a clear objective able to improve the situation of the country along with the positive external aspects that this can bring.