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Weak strength
The panorama presented by the
opinion poll conducted by the Public Opinion Institute of the Central
American University (IUDOP, in Spanish) in reference to the evaluation of
the last ARENA administration can be read from a couple of perspectives: a
partial perspective, that can be a deceitful one; and a global perspective
that can be more realistic. The former is content with a positive evaluation
of the public opinion in regard to the government and the presidents of
ARENA. The latter goes a step further and observes the weaknesses that
threaten the strong aspects of the situation.
The public opinion made a very positive evaluation about the Flores
administration, and that is probably a consequence of the electoral campaign.
Over 50% of those interviewed think that the former president made positive
changes, and particularly, that he built streets and roads, and that he
punished the juvenile gangs, something that might had reduced the
delinquency levels in a significant manner. Therefore, for a considerable
amount of people, the country is now the same or better than it was five
years ago, the President would have fulfilled his promises, and the
performance of his administration would have been good. Only approximately
one third of the population interviewed thinks that the situation is bad,
and makes a negative evaluation about the government. The “grade” granted to
the Flores administration is the highest one of the last five years; however,
his cabinet was not evaluated in a positive manner. Except for the ministers
of Public Works and Education, who ranked even higher than the President,
all of the ministers did not get a positive evaluation, especially the
ministers of Agriculture, Labor, and Economy. Therefore, from the
perspective of the public opinion, Flores did not have the best cabinet of
the Salvadoran history contrary to what he stated when making self-pleasing
compliments during several interviews published in the morning newspapers.
From this positive perspective, Flores would be the most honest President
that ARENA has had, the one that did more for the country, and the one that
brought more benefits. The new President inherits that positive vision and
awakens, because of that reason, great expectations among the Salvadoran
population. The people do not have doubts about his capacity to administrate
the country or that he will manage to make positive changes. They think that
the country’s situation will improve during his administration; while those
who think the contrary are only a minority. The new President ranked higher
that the former one. And according to the information provided by the
opinion poll, if the elections were to be celebrated again, ARENA would win
with over 47% of the votes against less than 20% for the FMLN.
This hypothetical defeat is based in a series of negative opinions about the
FMLN. Most of those interviewed, that is, 8 out of every 10 people,
disapproves of the absence of the FMLN in the presidential inauguration.
Instead of presenting a strong opposition such as the one this party intends
to portray, more than half of those interviewed thinks that the FMLN should
collaborate with the new administration. That portion of people also thinks
that the image of the FMLN has become weaker. Although the reasons for the
electoral defeat are divided in a couple of similar blocks, those who think
that it was the fault of the party’s directive board, and those who think it
was the result of external factors, most people (6 out of every 10) think
that the elections followed a legitimate process. It is evident that the
public opinion does not share the conclusions made by the directive board of
the FMLN (that the elections were an illegal and an illegitimate process).
The public opinion does not think that it was deceived or manipulated; their
thoughts and judgments are positive in regard to the new government, they
have positive expectations. Once again, the policies of the FMLN do not seem
to be close to the thoughts and the feelings of the population.
The partial interpretation about the social scenery of the country ends here,
but the opinion poll reveals enough information as to make a profound
analysis and observe that the strengths of ARENA and its administration are
not solid features. Almost since the beginning, the ARENA administrations
have always had an enormously weak feature: the economy. Most people would
like the economic policy to be changed, and this is a problem for a
government that basically counts with the presence of a sector that
represents the interests of the private business companies, and they refuse
to change such policy. On the other hand, some of them would like to take a
step further, that is, to offer more advantages for the wealthiest people
and the business elite without considering the rest of the people. It is
important to remember that ARENA moved quickly in order to avoid any
transformations in the economic route. They might intend to continue with
that strategy, but they will not go too far with it. They will have to
introduce several important changes if they wish to consolidate the already
identified strengths. The expectations of the people will only be kept alive
with changes that are able to create more of an equitable society through a
better distribution of the resources. Without that, governance will become
more of a complex task.
With the delinquency issue apparently resolved, most people think that
poverty, unemployment, and the economy are the main problems of the country.
Safety, at the moment, occupies a second place. Eight out of every ten
people think that the national and the family economy are now either worst
or the same, and that is not a positive comment. Half of those interviewed
think that the poverty level is higher now, and 25% of those interviewed
believe that the level of poverty remains the same. The people also
evaluated the performance of the Ministries of Agriculture, Labor, and
Economy, and the results were frankly the most negative ones of the whole
opinion poll; these are also the most critical areas. The population
concentrates here the flaws of the Flores administration. The new
administration cannot run away from this. That majority perceives that the
priorities of the ARENA administrations are both the wealthiest people and
the businessmen. Most of those interviewed believe that the former
administration did not bring along much benefits, that they have no effect
over the important decisions, and that no one has listened to them. This is
another aspect that the new government has to consider in a careful manner.
If it chooses a demagogic solution, its strong features might crumble away.
On the one hand, this depends on what is the direction that the FMLN will
take, because ARENA owes its present level of strength to the lack of actual
alternatives. The new President should not forget that the critiques and the
reviews received by the former president have fluctuated along his
administration period: he was between a level of acceptation and a level of
rejection along the last five years.
The consolidation of the civilian security remains at an apparent level. For
now, the public opinion shares the thoughts of the government in regard to
this issue: the punishments against the juvenile gangs are evaluated in a
positive manner, and those interviewed approve of this sort of strategy
regardless of the fact that it is an unconstitutional measure, and even if
it violates the international rights. ARENA has promoted the idea that the
best way to fight insecurity is to violate rights and weaken the
institutions that should be strengthened, and this has become an obstacle
for the people’s coexistence. At the moment, this is a critical shortcoming
for an administration concerned by governance. Another problem is that the
homicides allegedly committed by the juvenile gangs represent one third of
the total amount of murders, which by the way keeps increasing. This kind of
crimes are mostly committed with fire guns. When the population finds out,
eventually, that the government cannot provide an acceptable standard of
public security, this administration will lose legitimacy. This incompetence
will be seen as a weakness and the citizenry will feel helpless.
The government should not forget that the ultimate goal of the combat
against criminal violence is the promotion of the civil rights, which means
that crime has not only to be fought back against individuals, but also
against the institutional violence, the illegal conducts, the lack of
control, the lack of social protection, and the existence of the
authoritarian enclaves. Corruption, for instance, is an eloquent proof that
the government protects the criminals or that, at least, does not fight
against it with determination. Therefore, the “iron fists” are not a long-term
solution.
The favorable perception of today can change before the brutality of a weak
reality that is both violent and insecure. The answer that the ARENA
administrations have found is a trap that sooner or later can snap.
Therefore, the strength that ARENA and its government seem to have now shows
its weak foundations and it can crumble away as easy as it was built.
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