PROCESO — WEEKLY NEWS BULLETINEL SALVADOR, C.A.

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     Proceso is published weekly in Spanish by the Center for Information, Documentation and Research Support (CIDAI) of the Central American University (UCA) of El Salvador. Portions are sent in English to the *reg.elsalvador* conference of PeaceNet in the USA and may be forwarded or copied to other networks and electronic mailing lists. Please make sure to mention Proceso when quoting from this publication.

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Proceso 1078
December 17, 2003
ISSN 0259-9864
 
 

INDEX




Editorial: A false success to hide the failures

Politics: The institutional reform proposal of FUSADES

Economy: Running after the CAFTA

 
 
Editorial


A false success to hide the failures

 

The police operations against the gangs have been definitively successful. The people still talk about the gangs, but according to an opinion poll conducted by the IUDOP, with the objective to evaluate the year 2003, the citizenry does not perceive delinquency as a critical problem anymore. Most of those interviewed think that there is less delinquency today when they compare 2003 with the year 2002. Most of those interviewed also said that they have not been the direct victims of delinquency. Other evaluations show that, in fact, the delinquency level has descended in the last years, although it is still a problem. In this context, it is normal if seven out of every ten individuals acknowledge in a positive way the performance of the police. The trust of the population in the National Civilian Police (PNC, in Spanish) has grown so strong, that this time the PNC ranked higher than the Office for the Defense of the Human Rights when it came to evaluate the faith that the people had in the national institutions. On the other hand, it is necessary to say that the Office for the Defense of the Human Rights has been the victim of a plot that tries to undermine its credibility. The approval of the police’s plan is almost unanimous (87%) because it would allegedly reduce the delinquency levels (73%). The public opinion considers itself as the main beneficiary of the operation.

It is alarming, however, to see that most of the citizens are not worried about the fact that the reduction of the delinquency level is part of a procedure that openly violates the Constitution. For the public opinion, the objective would justify the means. This is what the Salvadoran public life practices and what the media publish and defend. Even if the operation seems to be successful, this is not quite as effective from an electoral perspective. And that is because it does not resolve the bottom problem: 40.8% of the population is under 17 years of age, and this group concentrates within itself 52% of the absolute poverty levels, and 49% of the whole population of the country. At the same time that it places ARENA at the head of the elections, the operation against the gangs hides another critical national problem.

The police operations against the youth made the economic crisis seem less important. Over 57.4% of those interviewed seem to be aware that the economy is a serious problem, the remaining obstacle, according to the public opinion. Approximately 90.5% of the population think either that the poverty levels have not been reduced or that they have grown higher, and that the same thing has happened with the economy –only a 13% thinks that the economy has improved-. The family economy did not have a considerable improvement in 2003. More than 8 out of every 10 individuals believe that the situation of the family economy has either remained the same or gotten worse. The perspectives for the next year are not optimistic. Over 60% of those interviewed think that the country’s situation will not improve in 2004. The free trade agreement with the United States does not offer any alternatives. Most of the population is convinced that it will bring benefits for the private business companies and the wealthiest sectors. However, there are divided opinions between those who think that the poverty levels will increase or that the free trade agreements will not have an impact on that problem. There are also those who think that the agreements of this kind will help to reduce the poverty levels. However, eight out of every ten individuals think that El Salvador needs a change, because it is not following the adequate path. Only a small percentage of those interviewed (18%) think that the economy improved in 2003 and believe that the country is in the right track. It should not seem odd then if more than half of the population wishes to emigrate.

The population does not associate the country’s critical economic situation with the government –President Flores and his administration have been positively evaluated. The population does not seem to find a connection between the aspirations for a change and the most important party of the opposition. ARENA is seen as the party that can put an end to both delinquency and unemployment, beyond the possibilities of the FMLN, and despite the fact that seven out of every ten individuals accept that Flores has not studied any favorable economic measures for the population. The difference is not very high, but it always favors ARENA when it comes to talk about the possibility to reduce the poverty and the corruption levels. The only aspect in which the FMLN seems to be more efficient than ARENA, according to those interviewed, is that the FMLN might lower the price of the basic food basket (30.3% versus 26.5%). An element that cannot be overlooked because it is a key factor in this deceiving operation is that something completely unsuccessful is presented as a triumph by the news media, and that an evident reality is therefore hidden before the eyes of the population. Most of the population seems to believe that the news media favor the actions of ARENA, and that is why the people have either very little trust in the news media or have no trust at all in it. However, the people think that the media have efficiently fulfilled its objectives.

In summary, ARENA is perceived as the party that has the best presidential candidate, followed not so close by the FMLN and the Coalition. The candidates who run for the vice presidency are evaluated in the same way, except for the candidate of ARENA, who does not seem to follow the steps of the presidential candidate. It should not seem odd then if most of the population thinks that ARENA will win the next elections. The personal factor seems to be a determinant aspect of this election, since more than half of those interviewed say that they will vote for the candidate, and only one fourth of those interviewed will vote for the party. In other words, the governmental programs are not relevant enough. The number of votes will be determined by the mount of sympathy inspired by the candidate; only a few people said that they will vote to change –most of them belong to the FMLN-. Change is, therefore, not a relevant issue for the population.

The impact on the preferences and on the vote is evident. In addition to the fact that four out of every ten individuals said that they had no preferences for any of the parties, three feel they prefer ARENA, and two prefer the FMLN. The intention to vote places ARENA in the first place (38.1%), followed by the FMLN (23.1%), the Coalition (4.9%), and the PCN (1.50 %). A 14.9% will not vote for any of the parties, and 17.6% does not know who to vote for. This means that, in relation with the last evaluation made by the IUDOP, ARENA would have lost 2%, and the FMLN would have won 1%, and this would have reduced the difference between both parties to 15 points. Abstention, however, has increased probably due to the extreme polarization of the campaign and to the lack of real alternatives, which reduces the amount of votes for the Coalition and the PCN. The present level of abstention is consistent with those who say that they are not interested to vote and that they do not trust the election process.

It seems that the citizenry tends to leave the most important local governments in the hands of the FMLN; however, the people do not seem willing to lead the FMLN to the presidency of the Executive Power. Most of those interviewed (40.7%) think that the FMLN has had good performance in the administration of the city halls. In other words, the campaign that both ARENA and its government have against the city halls administrated by the FMLN has not affected the public opinion yet.

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Politics


The institutional reform proposal of FUSADES

 

The Salvadoran Foundation for the Economic and the Social Development (FUSADES, in Spanish) recently presented its project of reforms for El Salvador, aiming to shape the “foundations” of the country’s development. The “Economic and social strategy 2004-2009” –the name of the document edited by FUSADES- deserves to be analyzed, and it is necessary to reflect about the different proposals included in it. However, this document should be placed in the right context. It has to be read as just another proposal. It does not have to be tagged as the best proposal beforehand, and definitively not as a must have for all of the presidential candidates.

All of the political groups of the country have the tendency to present their proposals at the sound of the drums, not only by raving about the advantages of their own plan but also by discrediting those rivals who do not agree with their analysis or with their perspectives to resolve the national problems. The political authorities chosen by the Salvadorans are responsible for actually executing the strategies for the national development, although that does not mean that they have to overlook the proposals that come from other groups or from other social movements. To outline the most important role of the elected authorities allows them to bring out the national character of their task. They are the ones who, once their administrative duties are over, have to respond to the citizens for the decisions that they made and for those that they did not make during their administrative period.

This article will analyze the document presented by FUSADES in reference to the legitimacy of the political representation system and the judicial system. As for the judicial system, the aforementioned document begins with a convincing observation; “the judicial system is one of the most prestigious institutions”. This is the feeling shared by the international investors and the general public. This idea leads us to speak about the lack of legitimacy of the judicial system. The excessive politicization of the Supreme Court of Justice is one of the consequences of this situation. Therefore, there are several proposals about the necessary modifications to the regulations that are followed to designate the magistrates of the maximum court.

Although most people could regularly agree with the observations that FUSADES made about the deficiencies of the Salvadoran Judicial System, it is necessary to make several comments about this subject. In the first place, it is wrong to say that the politicized process that is usually followed to designate the Supreme Court’s judges is at the root of its flaws. Because of the nature of its position, the designation of the judges cannot be detached from politics. On the contrary, in this case such politicization is a guarantee for the society. In addition, the election mechanism used in the country (the congressmen choose the magistrates of the maximum court through a qualified majority) seems to be more democratic than other mechanisms. In other nations, the magistrates are only elected by the President.

This is not about defending the judges or the political parties. This is about avoiding the temptation to demonize politics, something that is very fashionable nowadays among the businessmen. A person can agree with the idea to include both the private and the public institutions that work for the human rights in the selection of the judges, and define a more transparent mechanism to evaluate their performance. In addition, it would be necessary to discuss the convenience to name the supreme judges for a longer period. For instance, they could be named judges for a period of ten years without the possibility to be chosen for a second period. Or they could also be judges for as long as they live. At the same time the principle of a rotational system presidency could be added to the legislation, and the decision could be taken by the votes of the Court. This kind of reforms would allow to increase the independence of the judges of the maximum court, at the same time simpler and more transparent procedures are included to evaluate and eventually sanction those judges who commit crimes.

This discussion leads to the issue of the immunity of the judges. The arguments about the ”excessive” immunity that allegedly the judges would have is out of context. The document seems to confuse the dysfunctional cases of the evaluation process of the judges with their immunity. In this country this idea is usually used to discredit those who do not share the criteria of the right-wing –just as it was revealed by the protests against the liberation of the delinquents that were previously condemned by the reporters.

On the other hand, the document prepared by FUSADES does not criticize the mechanism that is followed to designate the Attorney General nor the performance of the institution. The designation of the person responsible for the Comptroller’s Office and the performance of this institution are not mentioned either. However, many people know that these organizations have a lot to do with the deterioration of the judicial system, in the first case, and with the acceptance of corruption, in the second case.

It would be convenient to notice what are the imputations that FUSADES made about the performance of the political system. It is very probable that most Salvadorans agree with the critics about the performance of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the accurate proposals to reorganize it correctly. At the same time, the population has several observations about the exclusion of the Salvadorans who live abroad. In reference to the Legislative Organ, the document “observes” that “the Salvadorans have an unusually negative opinion about the Legislative Assembly and about the way in which democracy works”. The document proposes to set aside the proportional representation system with closed lists that this country uses at present, in order to adopt an open list method through which the electorate will be able to decide the place that the candidates should occupy in the list. Another proposal is to replace the electoral quotient formula with a dividing formula, as proposed by D’Hont. A transformation of this kind, according to FUSADES “would lead to a better proportionality between votes and seats in the legislative body, and would prevent the parties from exploiting the small constituencies to maximize its representation with a minimum amount of votes”.


It is also necessary to consider other aspects, for instance, how pertinent it is to discuss the proportionality of the Salvadoran electoral system. Although this article is not analyzing the details of the effects that the new electoral formula proposed by FUSADES could have, it is necessary to reflect about this subject. In the first place, it is impossible to forget that there are no electoral formulas that can reflect a perfect proportionality between votes and legislative seats. We should not talk about the need of a proportional electoral formula for El Salvador. We should to talk about a formula with a higher level of proportionality, in order to correct the problems.

The proposal made by FUSADES –to go from Hare’s formula to the one proposed by D’Hont- creates a problem. As it is well known, in matters of the electoral system, D’Hont acknowledges the work of the large parties, while Hare tends to appreciate the work of the small parties. In other words, with the use of the formula proposed by D’Hont and approved by FUSADES, ARENA and the FMLN might be the parties that will receive most of the benefits. While, on the contrary, the smallest parties will be negatively accepted. Under this logic, it is convenient to wonder about the intentions of the authors that formulate this proposal. Is this about removing the small parties from the national political life and favor the two-party system?

If that is the objective, it is necessary to reverse this disproportional tendency in favor of the largest parties. However, it is important to observe that contrary to what the aforementioned argument sustains, in these circumstances the third party would hardly disappear. It might be necessary to wonder if the balance is eventually turned in favor of the large parties this will not go against the proportionality principle dictated by the Constitution. Beyond the present vices of the system, and the way in which the third party has behaved, it seems that the constituent was worried about the objective to favor a certain amount of political pluralism in a country where a political monopoly had ruled.

It is also necessary to pay attention to the eventual results of the “open lists” that are being promoted with the objective to establish a certain connection with the congressmen and the electorate. The tradition followed by the political sciences accepts that the preferential voting systems favor the personalization of the vote. However, this system also causes problems in the internal discipline of the parties because it promotes the autonomy of the congressmen. Some people might say that the maintenance of the constitutional key –what makes the parties the only instrument through which someone can be a candidate- could become an important fortress to avoid the fall of the parties. What can be said about the cases in which a person leaves one party to work for another? Is it worth to intensify the debilitation of the parties? Even in a closed list system most of the Salvadoran parties are not precisely characterized by their internal discipline. It is necessary to take a look at several aspects when it comes to discuss a new electoral institutional design in the national context.

An issue that is not explored by the proposal made by FUSADES is the possibility to reverse the Salvadoran presidential system. The truth is that it is necessary to be very careful when it comes to deal with this kind of issues. In fact, everybody knows that the country’s political tradition is attached to the presidential system. However, no one has taken the time to explore the possibilities of a mixed system that combines a certain level of the parliamentary work with the presidential system. The presidential system is closely connected to the instability of the Latin American democracies. The conflict resides in the dual democratic legitimacy of the Executive and the Legislative power, the leading institutions of the political life. When the President does not have a parliamentary majority he is usually involved in a permanent competition with the Parliament. Both of them present competitive and conflictive demands connected with the legitimacy of their procedures, and that is how insuperable obstacles emerge because of specific policies and specific laws. This issue has not been discussed in the proposal that FUSADES made.

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Economy


Running after the CAFTA

 

Many people predicted that the last round of negotiations of the Free Trade Agreement between Central America and the United States would end with no results, mostly because of the disagreements about the agricultural sector and the textile, the dairy, and the poultry farming products. The tensions of the first meetings between the delegates from Central America and the United States did not seem to come to an end. However, the struggle against the clock to reach an agreement on time, according to the dates that had been previously defined by the United States leveled out the road to a certain point. The negotiations would close and many aspects would remain to be discussed; however, many news media were already announcing that the global agreements had been signed.

The mystery of that sudden reconciliation of interests can be figured out by considering the dissuasive power of the commercial delegates of the Bush administration. Together with the person responsible for the foreign trade of the Bush administration, Robert Zoellic, these delegates used something more effective than the so called “the stick diplomacy” when the objections of those who represented Central America went out of the line: the threat to exclude their economies from the CAFTA. The CAFTA has been sold as the best business ever for the countries of Central America.

The reactions before the CAFTA
The “fast track” expression that Bush used to refer to the negotiation procedures of the CAFTA (with the approval of the judges who were his friends) literally means that. It also synthesizes the North American wishes in the negotiations of the Free Trade Agreements. That is a fast negotiation without stopping at the “small things” such as the labor rights and the environment, among other factors. As a backdrop of these accelerated agreements, several demonstrations took place in some cities of Central America.

In El Salvador, the demonstrations against the Free Trade Agreement were characterized by an incipient violence. A group of students took over the State’s University, the police arrived, and several people were arrested. This type of events –which affected the academic process and the administrative work of the university- is a sample of the political anachronism of those who miss the actions of the popular organizations of the eighties. They do not seem to realize what was the complex situation of the country back then.

However, this controversial action can be interpreted from another perspective. This is a desperate sign before an up-coming CAFTA, and there is nothing much we can do to stop it. In that sense, taking over a public university is more of a symbolic action, and not necessarily an effective one. It is a symbolic action because even if the Salvadoran National University belongs to the State, it does not have the same amount of power that other institutions have. Obviously, it was the easiest thing to do. It is not the same thing to take over a Ministry knowing that in a few minutes the police force would end with the situation in a violent way.

Nevertheless, this reflects that the demonstrators have lost their trust in the electoral left wing, and probably believe that it is not responding to the most important structural problems. This could be true; however, they are probably not considering that there are things that can only be resolved through the structure of the State. And this is a difficult task because of the many temptations that power brings along; nevertheless, any transformation project has to be able to face them. The electoral left wing, instead of ignoring these actions –which were used by the right wing to discredit the candidates of the FMLN-, should wonder if their electoral strategy is actually facing those problems (the CAFTA, the privatization). Therefore, what happened at the National University is an answer to this situation, probably not the right answer, but an answer anyhow.

Another reaction before the imminent arrival of the free trade agreement was the fact that Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez asked the Honduran government to postpone the negotiations, given the negative consequences that it could have for the popular majorities. In his opinion, this is not the right time for Honduras to join the treaty. He thinks that it is necessary to establish an agreement between the sectors affected by the CAFTA, and count with technical and financial assistance for the country to develop a qualified productive infrastructure and get rid of the present disadvantages that it has before the United States. This request is also valid for the rest of Central America. However, the negotiators did not seem to listen to these reasons.

Divide and conquer
The end of the last round of the CAFTA had the same tone that has characterized the negotiations of the free trade agreement: rushed global agreements. The negotiators do not usually discuss the key aspects for each of the Central American Countries. This leads us to the second characteristic: the obstacles that Central America has to reach a unanimous position about the issues that affect their production. In the end, they make separate negotiations. The imperial Roman motto “Divide and conquer” was never so right as it is in the development of the CAFTA negotiations. And if it does not seem so obvious now, it is necessary to remember, for instance, the position of Guatemala, a country that by offering its total openness to the United States actually compromised the position of the rest of Central America.

A sample of this lack of unity is enough. By the end of the negotiations, Costa Rica left behind "the fast track", a procedure chosen by the rest of the Central American countries. The reason for this behavior is the firm way in which Costa Rica has defended several strategic areas such as the telecommunications system, the generation of electric energy, and the agriculture. Costa Rica has been the most cautious country during almost the entire negotiation process of the CAFTA. Costa Rica is conscious that even if the commercial openness is necessary, the future of the countries cannot be jeopardized by negotiating those areas that are specifically connected with the basic elements to survive and with the national sovereignty. The result of the cautiousness of the Costa Rican government was that it decided to stay away from the negotiation. In January, this country will have a number of bilateral discussions with Washington.

Several sectors, such as the Salvadoran poultry farmers, have expressed how pleased they are with the results of the negotiations. This sector managed to reach an agreement that will protect them for ten years. This protection means that the tariffs will not be reduced for the products that come from outside the area for a decade. However, this alleged advantage has its limits: Central America will not be able to export poultry products to the United States while these products do not meet the American quality standards.

The governmental delegates from El Salvador and Honduras sacrificed those farmers that breed pork. In order to be able to export a larger amount of sugar to the United States, this country will export to Honduras and El Salvador twice the volume of pork meat produced by both countries, that was the deal.

There were those who naturally seem optimistic about the end of the CAFTA negotiations. “We will close the deals. I feel very optimistic for everything we have negotiated up to this point. During the next round of negotiations we will keep discussing other business deals”, said the Salvadoran Minister of Economy, Miguel Lacayo.

However, the amount of key aspects that remain to be discussed, and the lack of specific answers in reference to the economic and the social impact of the CAFTA, make it seem as if the jealousy towards the project that from now on will change many aspects of the Central American economy is inevitable.

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