The Anti-Communist paranoia of Flores

ARENA: A block without crackles?

ARENA is probably the party that has lived with the largest amount of internal commotion during the last municipal elections, which took place in March of this year. Ever since then, in what seems to be a process of internal renovation, the official party says that right now it is going through a new democratic course of action. They had no less than 10 candidates who aspired to run for the presidency of the country. Three influential characters stood out; Antonio Saca, Carlos Quintanilla, and Mauricio Sandoval. Their former positions as president of the National Association of the Private Business Companies (ANEP, in Spanish), Vice President of the country, and Director of the National Civilian Police (PNC, in Spanish), respectively, give them a national projection that might lead some people to think that there really is a democratic process of healthy competition inside the main party of the right wing.

The cupola of ARENA promised to perform a first impartial evaluation of its candidates. And the result of this process is the election of the three most important personalities, Saca, Sandoval, and Quintanilla. They will participate in the internal process that will end with the designation of one of them to defend the colors of ARENA during the 2004 presidential elections. Some people say that this final decision will be made by the foundations of the party. The members of the foundations complained about the verticality of the party’s direction. The party of the businessmen is trying to sell its decisions as an exemplar procedure of internal democracy that claims to listen to the voices of the forgotten ones. The lack of communication between the militants and the decisions that the leaders of the party make had been one of the most important elements during the evaluation tour that the ex presidents Calderon Sol and Alfredo Cristiani organized after the results of the last municipal elections were made public.

Appearances can be deceiving
If someone wants to go beyond the advertising offers and make an effort to understand what is really going on inside the official party, it would be convenient to focus the attention over several important aspects of this organization. There is the issue of the three selected candidates. It is necessary to stop and analyze their profiles, their influences, and the amount of support they count with inside ARENA.

Despite the harmonious and the serene public image that the ARENA leaders try to project, there are enough elements that let us see through them and think about a strong internal dispute to obtain the presidential candidacy. This situation allows us to say that their internal process is still far from being exemplar or democratic, or that the opinion of the foundations is considered more important than the interests of the small groups of businessmen that control the party. The paraphernalia that has accompanied the pre-candidacy of Saca and Sandoval confirms this affirmation.

Vice President Quintanilla Schmidt seems to be the one that counts with the smallest amount of support from ARENA. His presence in the dispute apparently obeys to an opportunistic interpretation of the internal situation of his party. Before the dispute between the factions that support Saca and Sandoval, the Vice President would aspire to work as a “fire fighter”. If the rivals do not obtain a satisfactory agreement to define which one of them will keep the presidential candidacy, Quintanilla would appear as the neutral and the representative figure of the party’s interests.

Mauricio Sandoval seems to be Flores’ favorite. The President did not like the negative critics that were made after the results of the municipal elections were made public. There are many evidences about the compatibility among Flores and Sandoval.

On the one hand, the fact that Flores was able to place one of his men at the head of the PNC is a symptomatic factor. There is no doubt that the former director used his position to prepare his presidential candidacy. It is also interesting to notice that during this brief internal propaganda period, Sandoval has been the only one who has not criticized the Flores administration. This only goes to show that Sandoval seems to agree with the alleged advantages of the model implemented by the government and its “definitively good” results for the country. Finally, inside the public meetings, Sandoval appears next to those who are close to the line of Flores, as Walter Araujo, who has been replaced by the group that now supports the candidacy of Saca.

Because of all the aforementioned ideas, it can be said that the former director of the PNC represents an important pole inside the main party of the right wing. He counts with the support inside the official party, and this allows him to have a fair competition. Even if the pre-candidacy of Sandoval took certain sectors of the COENA by surprise, this character has shown an unbreakable resistance and that it might be possible for him to win inside of the party. Sandoval says that he counts with the support of the party’s foundations. Sandoval counts with the fact that his net of support and the sensibility of many of the members of ARENA, about the hard line of police behavior (regardless of the respect to the law in several cases) against crime, will be an important element to be acknowledged by the foundations. In addition, if those foundations owe any special favors to him or to anyone who defends his cause, that is only one more reason to feel secure because he might be selected to compete for the presidency.

Antonio Saca, on the other hand, introduces himself as the chosen one, selected by the business elite that belongs to ARENA. It seems that Saca’s candidacy, which the different opinion polls present as the winner, would obey to the reaction of the circles that are closer to the business sector and are not necessarily happy about Flores’ political performance. Saca managed to take away the attention from Calderon Sol and his spectacular comeback to politics. A frantic race of internal rearrangements took place. The pieces were distributed on the internal political table of ARENA. Many of the protagonists seemed more concerned about not losing the last train than to responding to the need to support a winning bet compatible with the needs of the country, as several people have stated.

The spectacular launching of Saca’s pre-candidacy was all over the newspapers, known by their sympathy with ARENA. It was evident to see the little support that Sandoval has among these sectors (or perhaps the former director of the PNC did not count with enough money to buy as much advertising space as his contender did). In addition, the media’s businessman has been presented as the new messiah that the official party had been waiting for. The features that they emphasize are his youth, his humble beginnings, and his wide knowledge about the national affairs. In addition, they try to sell the image of a “human face”, a candidate willing to gather the benefits of the capitalist economy and bring them closer to the thousands of Salvadorans who are excluded from the society. Saca vindicates his humble beginnings as a sample of his social sensibility and his solidarity with those who are in need. On the other hand, the news media are already selling the idea of how the people accept the image of the young businessman. It would be a palpable proof that a personal improvement is possible inside the Salvadoran Capitalist system.

The mirrors of ARENA
In the light of the aforementioned ideas, there is no doubt that the foundations of the party will have a very small influence on the internal process announced by ARENA. All that this party has apparently achieved is to expose the dispute among the business elite, and certain elements that are overlooked inside the party. This is the case, for example, of Walter Araujo, who has decided to support Sandoval together with another group of people from the business elite. This sector later rejected Araujo. They excused themselves saying that the party needed to be renovated and act moderately. It seems that the former president of the ANEP participates in a campaign that tries to present the official party as an institution that feels concerned about the critical social situation of the Salvadorans. This is what the members of ARENA try to project in their discourse about the social face of the economy, with a government for the people, and traced with the general characteristics of the proposals made by the FMLN.

It is probable that the group represented by Saca might present him as the official candidate of ARENA. However it is not clear how the internal balance of this party will react. In addition, no one knows how Flores will behave, since he is resented because of the critics his administration received from other areas inside his party. Despite the uncertainty, at the moment, the communication media of the right wing and the propaganda team of the official party seem to favor Saca. However, the main problem of the official party will be to convince the Salvadoran population that it is worth while to try a new perspective with the businessmen. And this issue will be the heel of Achilles. Many Salvadorans know what those businessmen are capable of. Their credibility is a weak factor, because they have shown how capable they are to confiscate the political institutions of the country and use them according to their interests. That is why the different opinion polls inform us about how the official party lacks credibility and why the population do not have much sympathy for it.

It is expected that, with the announcement of the official candidate, ARENA will finally be able to ease its own demons. The elected candidate will have to consider that reality and act accordingly. The history of the official party has shown, on the one hand, the capacity of its leaders to agree when it comes to resolve their conflicts. Especially when they are trying to project an image of internal cohesion for the public opinion. The members of ARENA usually like to be at the center of attention of the political life. However, it should not seem odd if this task becomes more difficult in the following days. Not only because the process to select the candidates is new, although it actually does not include the bases. During the last couple of elections, ARENA has not been able to keep all its internal branches happy. It will be a difficult test for the new COENA to approach this problem in a different way.

Pre-electoral economic considerations

The main political parties that will participate in the 2004 presidential elections have announced the general lines of their economic plans. ARENA and the FMLN have not elected their official candidates; however, they have spoken about several important issues of their economic policies.

The economic program of ARENA is not that different from the others. The three pre-candidates say that the former administrations have neglected, in a way, the social affairs. That is why they promised that, if their party wins the elections, they would look after the immediate needs of the Salvadoran population with the help of an improved performance of the public institutions. They have also agreed on the fact that they will not privatize the Salvadoran Institute of Social Security (ISSS, in Spanish), since such an action would not benefit the citizenry.

The FMLN, in a very formal way, presented an economic plan that intends to make certain changes in the Neoliberal scheme, which, according to the pre-candidate Schafik Handal, is completely “worn-out”. The changes include the regulation of the business companies, and the respect for the Bi-monetarism established through the Law of Monetary integration. For the opposition, the market freedom is guaranteed, as long as it respects the law and the values of the social justice. The FMLN would also examine the privatization procedure followed by the institutions that belonged to the state. One of the members of the party’s political commission said that it is all about examining the existing regulations of the business companies.

By taking a quick look at the economic plans proposed by ARENA and the FMLN, it can be said that there is not much of a difference between them. Both political institutions speak about the importance of giving a higher level of support to the state’s institutions, in order to protect the interests of the consumers. In addition, they do not agree with the privatization of the ISSS. Both of them are also thinking about improving and supporting the agricultural sector, in order to reduce the rural poverty levels. In general terms, they both agree on the fact that it is necessary to improve the role of the Executive power, in order to find a solution for the social problems of the country.

However, for ARENA, the changes proposed by the left-wing party are a reason to worry. Tony Saca said that the FMLN will adopt populist measures that could generate the departure of the investments. In this context, a group of the right wing, along with several news media, has suggested that if the FMLN wins the presidential elections, it will establish a government with the characteristics of the Castro regime, or an economic system similar to the one that the former USSR had.

During the next elections, it will be important to consider if both political parties offer basically the same economic plan, and the amount of credibility that each one has. After the elections, it will be necessary to see if the new administration is able to implement its governmental plan in an efficient manner.

In this sense, it is important to notice that ARENA has been present in the Executive power for 14 years already. During that time, the different presidents of that political institution made a series of promises. At this point, the Salvadoran society is already able to judge if they did their job in a competent way. During his campaign, Francisco Flores promised to make several changes, mostly in the agricultural sector. However, all of the proposals that he made public have not been accomplished, even if he thinks that, as he mentioned a few days ago, the country has made important social and economic achievements and, therefore “El Salvador is today successful at any field”.

On the other hand we have the FMLN, a political institution that has never been at the head of the Executive power. This party has a considerable probability of wining the 2004 presidential elections. This party has shown through its performance in the municipal field that it is capable of making relatively successful changes. And this is a positive feature for the next elections.

Another important aspect that the people have to consider is the political style of doing things. That is, the specific way to implement the changes that the political institutions propose during their presidential candidacy. This is important, since basically the economic plans of ARENA and the FMLN are very similar in several aspects. That is why it would be interesting to see how will they implement their plans. According to Saca, even if the proposals of the FMLN are very similar to the ones of ARENA in several aspects, they tend to generate uncertainty. For him, it is not the same thing to talk about the changes that ARENA can make, and the changes that the FMLN could implement, because the FMLN identifies itself with the orthodoxy of Marx and Lenin.

Considering all of the former ideas, it is important that the Salvadoran population reflect about two aspects, the credibility and the style of the government, since these characteristic will determine in the future the behavior of the next Executive power. That is why it is necessary to interpret the attitude that the different governments from ARENA have had before the different needs of the society. In other words, it is necessary to consider if the official party has been able to satisfy, through the different public policies, the most urgent needs of the majority. In the case of the FMLN, it is necessary to observe its political behavior inside the Legislative Assembly, and inside the most representative municipalities that it administrates.

In reference to the credibility aspect, it seems that the governments of ARENA, despite the promises made during the electoral campaigns, in the end they have not been able to respond to the most important needs of the country. In this sense, the opposition has the benefit of the doubt, since it has never had the executive at hand to implement its public policies.

Before the possibility of a political transition during the next year, it is necessary to consider that in many developing countries, especially in Latin America, these transitions are due to, among other factors, the existence of a legitimacy crisis in the economic reforms made by the right-wing governments. In other words, there were certain economic reforms, such as a privatization, that did not bring all the benefits that the population needed. On the contrary, the benefits for just a few people increased, and the welfare of the less fortunate was overlooked.