Extreme Protest

The political situation in the beginning of the year

The Salvadoran political life is so hectic that sometimes it becomes too unpredictable. The things that would cause amazement in any other part of the globe, are taken here as the most “normal” events. Two months ago, for instance, Hector Silva was a prominent member of the FMLN, he could have been reelected for the third time in a row as the Mayor of San Salvador. Now he is introduced as “the star” of another political party, and now he will run for congress. Something similar occurs with many other candidates. That is why the word “transference” is the fashionable adjective to call the convert politicians.

Their conciliatory discourse is an important feature in the agenda of this sort of candidates, when it comes to talk about the country’s problems. The dispute between both of the leading parties is, according to them, the main Gordian knot of the political direction of the country. Such a simple appreciation evidently leads to a simple answer. ARENA announces the renovation of a considerable part of its congressmen. And, to pretend that they leave the confrontations aside, they decide to send away one of their most emblematic members, who is well known by his public disputes with the leaders of the left-wing party.

The number of those who switch positions is just a small sample of the plenty of surprises that the national politicians constantly give us. That is why whoever intends to reflect about the situation of the country’s political life, must understand that phenomenon carefully. While we have access to more information, we will try to read the new political situation of 2003. Right now the most important aspect is the elections. We will analyze the proposals of the parties, especially the offer of the small ones. We will also analyze the plans of “the characters”, destined to resolve the polarization problem.

A strategy based on the “figures”
By the beginning of 2003, the main concern in the life of the national political parties revolves around the next elections. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE, in Spanish) established the official date to launch the campaign (January 15th). In the mean time, the political institutions have presented their leading candidates to the voters. The politicians who have “switched” parties have caught the attention of some people ever since the parties began to prepare the elections. However, it is also important to focus on the message behind such actions: the political institutions are trying to present the people who have an acceptable image, people who come from the civil society.

There is no doubt that the political parties have less credibility now. This is an evident reality, because of the growing apathy for politics. The public opinion polls indicate that the situation did not changed much during the three-year administration period of this set of congressmen and mayors. In order to face this situation, the parties are using a message that invites the people to overcome the propaganda field. They are making an effort to use certain characters -some of them had a previous experience with the media- who are able to awaken the curiosity of the population. That is the case, for example, of ARENA. Its leaders are constantly announcing the personalities who will fight for a place in the Congress. However, in the end, they are figures who have been known because of their role in other institutions in favor of ARENA.

All of the facts that were formerly mentioned have to do with a fashionable rhetoric about the moderation of the candidates. ARENA and the FMLN have used this discourse at least theoretically. However, the rest of the parties (old and new) are those really involved in this sort of “strategy” in order to get closer to both of the leading political forces. Most of these parties have revived the old motto: ask the Salvadorans to avoid the polarization game between the official party and the opposition. Again, the political offer is mainly about figures whose compromise does not go beyond their actions to look for a consensus in order to resolve the problems that affect the Salvadorans. The main bet of the “other parties” is based on a wide range of personalities who claim that they belong to the center, willing to implement a rule of equilibrium between ARENA and the FMLN.

Will the project of “the center” succeed?
Even if it is still too early to answer if it is possible, in the present conditions, to break up with the polarization of the parties, there is no doubt that some objections can be seen about implementing a “central” project. In the first place, it is necessary to ask what are the chances that some of these “new” parties get more votes than the PCN, a party that has been the third political force (a party that has also revealed itself as a definitive ally of ARENA). In the second place, it would be necessary to ask if the good will that the candidates of the “center” say they have is enough to face the polarization problem.

Will one of these parties be able to make their wish come true? Only the results of the next elections will tell. In any case, it is important to notice that those parties are not only barely named as political options by the voters, but what is even more critical: they have not presented a credible alternative program. In addition, they do not have a strategy to accomplish their objectives. The spokespeople of this “third option” seem to count more on the persuasive strength of their personalities, than on a coherent economical and political set of proposals to guarantee their credibility.

On the other hand, another important issue has to do with the actual options to promote a new force inside the system of parties. In other words, it is necessary to ask if it is possible to launch a project from the center in the present conditions. This question invites us to prepare a set of parameters that allow us to understand the importance of the polarization issue. Why is the political activity heading towards a centrifugal competition? Maybe when this is all cleared up we will be able to find answers to overcome the problem. On the contrary, we run the risk of confusing the illness with the symptoms, and make the wrong diagnosis.

The implications of the Free Trade Agreement
of the United States and Central America

To establish a solid business partnership with the United States became the main issue for the economic agenda of the Central American countries. This is related with the North American International Policy, which is about to establish the Free Trade Agreement Area of the Americas (ALCA). The motor of this deal is the United States. This is due, among other aspects, to the concern of this country about the economic and the political consolidation of the European continent as a block capable to be more powerful than Washington, economically speaking.

Right now it seems as if the leaders of the Central American region have placed their hopes on a larger kind of development and on a more intense economic growth in the shape of a Free Trade Agreement (TLC, in Spanish) with the United States. For the Central American governments, to achieve this kind of agreement would be to make a successful entrance to the globalization process. This is particularly true for the Salvadoran government, because this would mean the consolidation of a quick process of commercial openness, which got started during the nineties, and which has been an essential element inside the present economic model.

Approximately a couple of years ago, our country was negotiating an agreement with Mexico to take away, according to the government, the obstacles related with the tariffs, and create a more open space for the foreign investment. With this, more jobs would be created. However, if the success of this trade agreement is quickly examined, it could be said that the employment levels have not grown in considerable way, contrary to what the government said in the beginning.

Perhaps the most important aspect of this variable resides in the quality of jobs generated after signing such agreement. The amount of jobs has generally increased inside the maquila sector, where there are long shifts, and where, in most of the cases, the rights of the employees are not respected. Because of this situation, the governmental balance of the agreements seems to be extremely optimistic and does not reflect the negative elements.

To sign a trade agreement with the United States, besides generating new opportunities, also puts into perspective many of the circumstances that the Central American region is going through. It is important to consider this agreement in a particular way, since it is practically the only one of its kind. It will be implemented in one year, approximately, and it will have nine rounds of negotiation. According to what has been published by the media, there will be six groups, and each one of them will discuss the following topics: the access to the markets, services, solutions, labor issues, the environment, and cooperation.

Because of this situation, it is important to consider the level of integration that has been reached between the countries of the region. It is necessary to establish, in terms of an external trade, a unification of the tariffs and customs. However, despite that there are clear efforts in this direction, there is still a long way to go.

It is also necessary to examine the level of asymmetry of the negotiation process. Washington will count with a team of experts, since it has already signed several business agreements with countries that have a strong group of productive sectors. Central America, besides having to reach an agreement with the other countries in order to negotiate, has to realize that it does not have much experience in a deal of this kind. This lack of experience can be crucial when it come to negotiate the commercial aspects with the representatives of North America.

The agricultural aspect is a very delicate issue. If we take a close look at the structural crisis that the sector is going through, it could be said that it is not prepared to compete in the international field. If two decades ago, the strength of the exportation activities rested on the basic agricultural products (cotton, coffee, and sugar cane), it presently rests on the exportation of the maquila. The country cannot pretend to win something through the present business deals, when the current economic model has practically overlooked the agricultural sector (it does not see it as the axis of the accumulation of capital). It is nothing but an illusion to pretend to compete with the North American agricultural sector, which receives a considerable dose of capital as a subsidy granted by the state.

A relevant aspect is that during the development of the negotiation process, various groups of businessmen will also be reunited to unify their criteria about the measures and the postures of their representatives. That is why it is important to reflect about the following: What kind of businessmen will be there, and what kind of interests will they represent? Will the interests of the micro, the small, and the medium business companies be actually represented during the negotiation? The answers will determine the kind of results obtained in the future of Central America. The last question is the most important one. Most of the national industrial sector is formed by the micro and the small business companies, and that these companies employ practically three fourths of the economically active urban population of the country.

Although nothing definitive has been said by the theorists, in terms of the commercial results, technically there are not too many positive effects for the countries that have negotiations with the United States. For instance, it is true that the exportation has increased for Mexico; however, the sectors that have achieved this goal have progressively grown apart from the industrial net, and this has brought many productive chains to an end.

It is important to say that the negotiation process with the United States, even if it is a successful opportunity for a number of business companies, it could also mean a step backwards in social terms. The distinctive feature of the last administrations of the region is that the decision making process overlooks the different institutions of the civil society. The aggressive search for economic goals, such as a higher economic growth and a larger development, should not be an obstacle to ignore those opinions and ideas that the civil society has. There are plenty of non-governmental organizations that demand to consider the aspects that are important for the society, such as the environmental and the employment issues.

The Salvadoran government will have to consider, during the negotiation process, not only the economic implications of the agreement. The government should also consider the political and the social aspects of this agreement. It is necessary that the negotiators take a closer look at the most urgent needs of the population.